INSIDE POLITICS - PAYBACK TIME

Is it going to be payback time, literally? Bertie Ahern doesn't want to forfeit the extra 38 grand. But a couple of Ministers have been sounding a little peevish and watery about getting another massive rake of cash on top of all the perks, money and extras they have got over recent years.

And it's not just the politicians. It's the entire top brass.Secretaries General (Grade 1) of Government Department will all be getting €303,000, as will Supreme Court Judges, CEOs of semi states, with a whole second tier of judges, technocrats, Semi State bods, university heads getting humongous wage levels. The plain truth is that we are more prosperous now but STILL a small country, and such largess is unjustified. An independent body it may technically be but it is composed mostly of very wealthy people from the private sector - there is one workers' representative from the Labour Court. For them big six figure salaries are (excuse the mixed metaphor) ten a penny.

And what's galling is that they are all entitled to gold-plated pensions that are inured to the winds of change. And secretary generals will also be entitled to bonuses up to 20% of their salaries for 'exceptional' performance, whatever that is. And will they get docked pay for making a blunder or for under-perforimg? Umm, I thing we have a negative on that one!

Eamon Ryan didn't do well this morning under a fusillade of questions from Cathal Mac Coille on Morning Ireland (hear the interview here). And the rumour is that the Cabinet is now going to indulge in a bit of tokenism and defer the pay rise for a couple of months, and then reintroduce it when the furore has died down.

Sadly, I wouldn't expect any of the opposition parties to do any better. The greed at the top reflects wider society. Who's going to protest about it? No politician will, that's for sure! Who else? The vested interests involved are the most powerful in the country! Who has the will and the wherewithal to do it? Anybody who has is going to be way outside the golden circle.

There are sectors in Irish society where salaries are vastly inflated. Executive pay in business is crass. Barristers and consultants at the top of their professions command obscene fees that are grotesquely out of proportion with Ireland's size and position in the world (for reference, return to home truth speech made by the German Ambassador to Ireland). And no matter how consultants try to dress it up, one of their number did described a €200,000 plus salary as "Mickey Mouse money".

I'll just finish by quoting two paragraphs from Polly Toynbee's excellent column in the Guardian last Tuesday on pay profligacy (being Toynbee, they are two very long paragraphs!.

Out of control top pay in the private sector should matter to the Treasury because it infects the public sector. Why is the cabinet secretary now paid considerably more (£220,000) than the prime minister (£187,000)? It's a plum prestige job that needs no bribery, and leads to rich jobs afterwards. Does the chief executive of Bradford need more than the PM? Bringing private sector people in now infects public pay scales, as lower ranking arrivals on £300,000 report to permanent secretaries on £170,000. (However there is plainly a rare genuine market for head of the nuclear decommissioning authority: no one applied for this toxic chalice at £80,000 so it's now been advertised at £200,000). But being director general of the BBC is not toxic: everyone wants it, so why pay a total package of £788,000 - let alone cabinet minister rates for scores of middling BBC managers? (And couldn't they take a pay cut in sympathy with those about to lose their jobs?) Sir John Bourn's downfall is a classic example of how private excess makes public people lose their financial bearings.
For Labour to refuse to give any leadership on this is an incomprehensible lacuna: the national psychology of pay affects everyone. Yesterday the government set up a new child poverty unit: Ed Balls and Peter Hain, the two ministers involved, know their 2010 half-way mark to abolishing child poverty will be missed by miles on its present trajectory. Barnardo's are joining in - but their director, Martin Narey, wonders what they can do with no extra money. Only 48p a week extra went to child tax credits this year, subsidising low-paid jobs. The bigger question is this: how can Labour ever abolish child poverty if they dare not face down the underlying forces fracturing pay scales all the way through and accelerating the country into ever greater inequality?

The selfsame argument can be made in Ireland.

INSIDE POLITICS - COWEN IS ANOINTED

THE two Green ministers cycled to their new departments for their first day of work yesterday. This wasn’t a David Cameron
moment. There was no car and driver crawling behind Eamon Ryan or John Gormley carrying their suits and their papers as they negotiated the horrendous traffic and the even more horrendous weather. This wasn’t just a bit of show for the cameras. This was a real demonstration of intent and purpose. This may come as a shock but they really mean what they say.
But surprise, surprise, it wasn’t the biggest such demonstration or direct action yesterday. The Greens were outflanked on that score by Fianna Fáil. Decisively so. And the identity of the person who broke from the comfort zone of the peloton? Yes, none other than the man in the yellow jersey, the Lance Armstrong of Irish politics.

Part of the package that has made Bertie Ahern so phenomenally successful is that he is so guarded, so deliberately evasive and opaque with his language, that you’re never sure of how he’s going to act until he’s acted. And so adept is he at throwing the anorak of deception over every pronouncement that sometimes, you are not even sure of how he’s acted even after he’s acted.

His interview with Seán O’Rourke on RTÉ’s News at One yesterday was remarkable. If you ever pick up a gossip or celebrity magazine you are always promised that such and such a personality is giving their most revealing interview ever. And then you read it and you discover that it’s the most revealing interview since the most revealing interview they gave last month. We have that before with the Taoiseach too. He can talk an awful lot in interviews, yet say very little.

But yesterday was very different. O’Rourke is one of the best interrogative ministers in the business. But in truth there was no probing in it yesterday. A "chancing your arm" type question about the possibility of Brian Cowen succeeding Ahern opened up the floodgates.

And yes folks, this was Bertie Ahern giving his most revealing interview ever.

"I could give you a lot of political answers about this one, but I’m not going to go down that road," he said.

He described Brian Cowen as a great friend for 20 years, praised his brilliant mind and his experience.

"He’s a hugely, hugely experienced politician, and I think, from my point of view — and it’s obviously the party (which) will ultimately decide — from my point of view, he is the obvious successor to me in five years’ time or whenever."

Ahern was as relaxed and at ease with himself yesterday than at any time in the past decade. That was deeply unsurprising. He had lifted the political equivalent of Sam for a third time in a row, placing him is now firmly second only in the Fianna Fáil pantheon to Eamon de Valera., the man who founded and personified the party during its first three decades of existence.

His surprisingly direct blessing of Cowen as the “anointed” one was telling. O’Rourke compared it to Dev and Lemass. In the modern context, it is Blair and Brown, although without the personal tension, distrust and antipathy though, the relationship between the two leading figures in FF isn’t always as silkily smooth as Ahern portrayed it today).

At the same time the naming of his successor by Ahern was a move that took everybody by surprise. His strategy over the past five years has been to promote all the obvious candidates in the succession race to senior positions — Micheál Martin; Dermot Ahern, Mary Hanafin and now possibly Brian Lenihan. And though they talk themselves down, at least three of the other possibles harbour fierce and burning ambitions to be leader.

But in the past year, Cowen has copper fastened his position as the runaway front-runner. He has all the positions, in charge of the key finance ministry, deputy head anorak and now Tánaiste. At moments of crisis for the party Fianna Fáil — and most of them have revolved around Bertie Ahern in the past 12 months — he is the guy who has grasped the nettle by the stem.

Ahern’s TV-debate performance was crucial during the election campaign. But no more important than the formidable and dashing performances given by Cowen.
As with Across the water, Gordon Brown, has gradually taken on more of the prime ministerial duties. Here, we are also seeing a slow accession beginning to gather pace here. Cowen not Ahern was the Fianna Fáiler who spoke when the parliamentary party gathered on the plinth on Wednesday. Within two years, three at the most, the handover will take place. There is no way that Bertie Ahern will remain until he is 60 and he knows that as much as anybody.

Does Cowen want it? Of course, he does. He is at the heart of Fianna Fáil — he is the heart of Fianna Fáil. The Greens also have a leadership issue on their hands, chose their leader by a unique process called a preferendum. — they don’t vote but pick the chosen one by consensus.

It seems that Fianna Fáil will learn from them and choose a new leader by acclamation rather than by vote. And like his new Green ministerial colleagues he’s already pedalling away furiously.

INSIDE POLITICS - THE NEW GOVERNMENT REVEALED

Bertie Ahern was amazingly conservative in his appointment of ministers. He never had the sanguine nature to do the slashing job that Albert Reynolds did when he became Taoiseach.

Bertie's method is an effective one. He is not into invasive surgery. When things had to change in 2004 he did so with a minimum of fuss. Charlie McCreevy was booted upstairs. Joe Walsh and Michael Smith were finally given their walking papers. And that allowed him to bring in three.

The same kind of compositional creatity was used this time around. He offered John O'Donoghue the Ceann Comhairle position. He could have done a bit more tinkering and appointed Brian Lenihan as Attorney General (there is no bar for a politician to become A-G). In the event Dick Roche got the flick to accommoddate John Gormley and Eamon Ryan.

Whatever deficiencies there were for the Greens in the draft programme for government, they partly made up by getting two plum ministries, both of which feed strongly into the green agenda.

And for those who had to be shifted, the big winners were the negotiators. Noel Dempsey moves to Transport and Marine; Seamus Brennan parlayed his way into a position that he became indispensable - Bertie just couldn't drop him after his starring role over the past six weeks. And for Brian Cowen, his position as the 'annointed' was confirmed by him becoming the first Tanaiste since John Wilson.

INSIDE POLITICS - THE NEW GOVERNMETN

It's going to be an amazing day. A new Dail. A new Government. The protocol and procedures. Ciaran Cuffe's interview on Morning Ireland this morning with his admission that there will be constant tension set the tone. We will have interesting times ahead. The Greens will have to perform strongly as Ministers though to make up for the Green shortfall in a programme for government that is indistinguishable (almost) from the FF manifesto.

Last night's overwhelming yea to Government by the Greens last night was equally amazing. It was highly emotional; a coming-of-age for a political party. The 87% backing for the leadership was extraordinary.

And Trevor Sargent's decision to resign showed a rare display of honour amongst the band of thieves that is the political class and the hacks that write and talk about them. That he was not only stepping down but also forfeiting a ministerial seat spoke volumes about the moral strength of the man. He didn't have to do it. He could have been persuaded to change his mind. Sure, he would have shipped some flak. But he would have survived them, as Bertie Ahern has.

So now for an exciting day. A new Ceann Comhairle. A trip to the Park. The ushering in by Bertie of the selected 15 to tell them they are members of the new Cabinet. The dramatic unveiling of the new Ministers, to the Dail and at Aras an Uachtarain where they will receive their seals of office.

Who will the new ministers be in the 30th Dail. Well, will John O'Donoghue move on? And allow Brian Lenihan in? Who will be the Green Party TDs in Government. John Gormley? Certainly. And the other? Eamon Ryan or Ciaran Cuffe? It's hard to say. Who will get the Justice portfolio? Will Lenihan (of whom they say Ahern isn't very fond) get promoted straight into justice? Will it be Dermot Ahern or even Willie O'Dea?

For now it's all second-guessery. Having second-guessed Ahern so badly in the past, I'm not going to plump for anybody.

Here's the piece I wrote for this morning's Irish Examiner, which I finished a couple of hours before the event.

After ten straight days of sultry sunshine, the skies finally broke over Dublin. And when the rain arrived in Dublin, it sheeted down from heavens for hour and hours, unrelentingly.

It was a timely reminder that for all the talk of heat and global warming Ireland still means rain, and lots of it.

And when the joint programme for government was finally produced yesterday, that was a timely remind that for all the talk of green tides and new dispensations, Ireland still means Fianna Fail, and lots of it.

Yesterday was always going to be the pivotal day for the Greens. There is no party as ideological in Ireland these days; no party as truly democratic. And to get into government the ‘realos’ (or realists) of its political leadership would have to sell the document to its membership, a sizeable minority of whom remain ‘fundies’ (or fundamentalists) – those who remain immovable on core issues like incineration or motorways or the war in Iraq.

And what’s more, not only did the leadership have to get a majority, it had to get a stonking two thirds majority – and that would be a hard ask for even the more conventional parties if they were embarking on a major change of direction.

As one member of the senior leadership described how the day would pan out: “We are a horribly open and democratic party. People will say their piece. We don’t know who is going to show up. We don’t know what proportion of members will back our opinion. We have a huge job of persuasion to do.”

And the huge job was not made any easier by the bad start the Greens had to the day. Somebody (presumably from the Fianna Fail side) leaked details of the joint programme for government to the media. And some party members began to choke on their muesli when they read that the party had ceded on Shannon; on the M3 Motorway at Tara; and on hospital co-location.

And soon after the doubters were ventilating their concerns, based on a newspaper report that wasn’t entirely accurate or complete. Former TD Roger Garland described it as a betrayal. Former MEP Patricia McKenna was expressing serious reservations about Shannon. The majority of those who were vox popped on radio seemed to be members of the party’s awkward squad, opposed to the programme on various grounds, ranging from Shannon to antipathy to Fianna Fail.

It took the morning for the pro-government forces to get off the back foot and rally back. For a couple of hours, the negatives were in circulation with a virtual monkish silence on the positives. The party began a round of intensive briefings with the media, pushing the fact that they had got a 3% reduction on emissions, a carbon levy, some concessions on extraordinary rendition, E350 million per annum for education plus (in defiance of expectations) two senior ministries and two junior ministries.

But on a cursory look, the draft programme had a kind of familiar look to it. Where had we seen that before? we all asked. Well, yes indeed, it was the Fianna Fail manifesto in the main, with some Green initiatives attached. But they were not as significant, as far-reaching, as potentially sea-changing as you might have expected.

If that was all the Greens had achieved late on Tuesday night, how slim had their gains been when they abandoned ship last Friday?

Transport 21 - and all its motorways - remains intact. All the co-location clinics will go ahead (the Greens could never really have hoped to budge FF on that one). No halt to current incineration projects either. There is not a syllable about the US military passing through Shannon – a surefire sign that FF weren’t going to budge on that either.

Sure, there was a line on extraordinary rendition but was it strong enough to ensure the regular inspection of plane traffic through Shannon.

Senior insiders said that it meant, that from Ireland’s perspective, the circus that arose in Iraq will not be repeated.

But one candidly admitted. “We tried for the strongest possible wordking but didn’t achieve in getting it. We will try to not allow the circumstances of 2002 and 2003 to re-occur. We have received a stronger wording on extraordinary rendition.”

The Green strategy to sell the document was three-fold. The first ingredient used by all its leading members yesterday was a refreshing and disarming honesty. They all agreed that they were disappointed with some aspects, that they didn’t achieve everything they wanted.

Dan Boyle was the person who fielded most of the questions from delegates at the Mansion House in central Dublin yesterday. This quote from him was emblematic of that approach.

“It is not a great document. It may not even be a good document but it does contain good elements and those elements come from us.”

Yes, predominantly Fianna Fail, but the Green Party leadership went in for a sustained hard sell on those ‘good elements’, stressing the influence its presence would bring to bear on government policy.

They stressed in particular that the Greens had won two senior ministries and two junior ministries and that those ministries would be in the areas – environment, energy, and transport – where the heart of the Green philosophy lay. If you had a minister in charge of that area, they argued, you were already half way there.

They also made the point – and you couldn’t argue with this – that the party has six deputies compared to FF’s 78. On top of that, the bigger party didn’t ultimately need them. Moreover, they argued, the thrust of the party’s direction over the past five years was to be in Government, to implement green policies before it was too late.

Sure, Fianna Fail wasn’t its first-choice bed-fellow. And in another instance of that honesty, of his public wrestling of conscience, Trevor Sargent made good on his promise and offered himself as a sacrificial lamb, saying the future of the country was more important that his own. We will not know for sure if he will make good on his offer to resign, or if his party will persuade him to stay on.

Two thirds was a big ask for the Greens. And they based all the negotiations on policy, insisting that if they could win enough tangible Green policies, then the membership could be persuaded.

Paradoxically, it might be mood rather than hard-nosed calculation on ‘have we go enough?’ that will swing it.

I spoke to a fair few delegates going into the meeting. Some were opposed. But others, while disappointed with some aspects, spoke of a mood for change, a sense that it was time, or of excitement that the Greens could enter government and transform the country, much as the country changed after Mary Robinson’s victory in 1990.

Two thirds was a big ask. But it was also a big question. And you sensed that finally the Greens were finally ready to answer it with a decisive ‘yes’.

INSIDE POLITICS - POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR

You know how to get a story out?

Just tell a politician a secret.

The worst kept secret of the last 24 hours was revealed tonight when Trevor Sargent was named as the Magill Politician of the Year. I was one of about a dozen political correspondents who used our skill, expertise, deeply-held prejudices and a thumb-tack to choose the winners.

The event was held in the Royal College of Physicians just two doors down from Leinster House and there was a great turnout despite the fact that the division bells for crucial votes had been ringing all day.

Sargent completed what was a bit of a 'Scorsese on Oscar Night' for the Greens.

Eamon Ryan - who was very bashful and self-deprecating - won TD of the Year and Mayor of Galway Niall O Brolchain was a nominee in the 'one to watch' category.

What struck me is that the politicians who won awards were genuinely chuffed and pleased, including a beaming Joan Burton who won campaigner of the year ("I didn't make a speech," she joked afterwards, "because I would have cried like Gwyneth Paltrow's at the Oscars."). Noel Dempsey was also very pleased. I suppose that in such an insecure profession, it is nice to get validation (though it's not the same as getting elected).

Sargent quoted an old political maxim that when the party's doing badly, it's the leader who's at fault and when the party's doing well, the leader gets all the credit.

It is true that his party is doing well. But I think that its support might have plateaued and that it might experience the recoil that a Sinn Fein bounce will bring it. Still, sure, the Greens will do very well. I'm still predicting 10 seats or more. But I think that if things go smoothly for SF between now and May 8 they will also be winning that amount - and will be in competition with the Greens for at least one - Dublin Central.

It was great to see Terry O'Brien getting the 'one to watch' award. Terry is a rising star in the Labour Party and his attitude is just amazing. However, popular and all as he is in Tralee, the town support won't be enough to win him a seat in a constituency that makes the Titanic look like a currach.

And while the ever-pleasant, ultra-capable Oonagh McPhillips from the Dept of Justice also deserved her award, it was great to see her boss Michael McDowell bravely come along to accept his gaffe of the year award for his Richard Bruton-Goebbels outburst.

His speech was hilarious. His best line was that he was entitled to gaffe because in the PDs he is the gaffer!