Saturday, June 02, 2007

INSIDE POLITICS - FF'S CLAIMS TO PERMANENT GOVERNMENT

I remember having a chat with a friend of mine a good few years ago about the nature of Irish political parties. He also happened to be a fiery believer in the one true faith. His hackles would be raised very pronto indeed if you inferred that an Anorak was a less than immaculate garment.

“Sure, Fianna Fail and Bertie Ahern, they stand for nothing!” I said.

He pondered for a second before replying.

“That’s not true. They are the party of Government. That’s what they do. So they stand for everything.”


We need to re-order our phraseology. When the term ‘permanent government’ is used, it refers to the civil service. But in Ireland it could almost mean Fianna Fail. The party has been in government for all of 75 years now, save for a couple of interruptions. And failing some mid-term disaster, its latest run will have been for a full quarter century minus the two and a half years of the Rainbow.

How does FF and Bertie Ahern do it? What is the trick they use? Does the anorak turn itself inside out to reveal a magic multi-coloured dreamcoat? Not quite. But like racing pigeons, Fianna Fail has its own version of an inbuilt homing device that makes sure it reaches its rightful destination – Government Buildings, 1 Merrion Street, Dublin 2.

Over the past 15 years, it has swayed a bit to the left (to accommodate Labour), a little bit to the right (for the PDs) and a little bit to the left again when Ahern (ingeniously) copped on that Charlie McCreevy, in the eyes of the Irish electorate, was beginning to look more Boyzone than Westlife.

So he was ditched. A long way out – as far back as its think-in in Sligo in September 2005 – Fianna Fail decided that what would win the election was what every other government or prospective government use to win elections – the economy.

And it was the economy that ultimately won it the election, with a dollop of the ‘caring and sharing’ strategy that came post-McCreevy. It out-trumped the referendum on health. It out-trumped the media’s exposure of Ahern’s credibility gaps. It out-trumped the so-called crime crisis. It out-trumped all the quality of life issues that had parents hold parties for their kids at 6.30 in the morning before getting ensnared in traffic, congestion and 24-7 hassle.

It’s been pointed out before but where FF won most spectacularly was where all those problems were supposedly at their worst, in Dublin and in the constituencies that necklace the capital. Fianna Fail supporters now include a new genus, or class of human being. In the Thatcherite eighties, it was called Sierra Man... the working class man who was able to afford a Ford Sierra thanks to Thatcherism.

Our version here is called Breakfast Roll Man, as Ivan Yates neatly coined it - the guy with his own house in the suburbs (mostly far-flung) who has done alright from Celtic Tiger Ireland, but works very hard for it (hence the early morning breakfast roll) and worries that it may all disappear.

Last weekend, Bertie Ahern pointed out that he was now the father of the European Council. There was a teensy-weensy bit of self-preening there, a subtle reminder that he outlasted Schroeder; Berlusconi; Chirac and even Blair.

Looking at it from the outside, the most solid possible combination, numbers-wise, would be a link-up with the Greens, the two remaining PDs, with the two ex-FF independents thrown in. But that involves a few problems that may prove to be insuperable. Going in with the Greens would mean forfeiting at least one more ministry on top of the one given to Harney.

For me, there would be an attraction to the Greens being there – because sometimes you suspect FF’s policies in on the environment sound like nought but mouth (or should that be nil by mouth?). But then there’s an antipathy to the Greens that extends from its rural backbenchers to the two men at the helm, Ahern and Brian Cowen - both of whom have railed against the Green’s criticisms of FF’s relationship with the construction industry.

For them, to echo Ciaran Cuffe, treating with the Greens would be a deal with a devil. However, there are a few others – notably Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey – who would be more enthusiastic about a coalescing.

What FF really want is a long-lasting government that is tribunal-proofed. But that’s where the real problem lies. Sure Ahern has seen off Tribunal accusations twice – emphatically both times. But you can’t get away from it – there’s a discrepancy between his last statement and the Tribunal’s opening statement this week. He says Celia Larkin lodged 30 grand sterling. The bank branch’s own records show only £1,900 sterling came in that day.

That’s a major problem. And in the normal course of events, you would expect the PDs to raise it. But there’s nothing normal about the situation the PDS find themselves in. The party’s quandary is can you afford a moral conscience when the name of the game is survival? This will also pose difficulties for the Greens, should they be asked to the party. Will they look for assurances, or be content to await Ahern’s evidence to the Tribunal?

Sure, Ahern has had two whopping wins on this issue. But Haughey saw off his detractors in spectacular fashion before limping out tamely in the end. If it drags on, there’s a chance that Ahern’s legs will begin to go and he will find that he – like all the others – is obsolescent. Remember it’s a party of permanent government not of permanent leadership.

A version of this appeared in this mornings Irish Examiner

4 comments:

Adam said...

I think "Breakfast roll-man" is one of David McWilliams' many phrases - I think it was first used in The Pope's Children.

As far as I know, Ivan Yates just quoted it rather than coined it.

Dan Sullivan said...

Harry, as I've mentioned before it all depends on who gives hostages to fortune.

If the Greens give Bertie a pass on Mahon come what may then Cuffe, Gogarty, White and Ryan would have their clocks cleaned by FG, FG, FG, and Labour respectively come the next election. Sargent and Gormley might will survive it. Boyle would never be able to return to the Dail.

They might give FF a 5 year pass on the other hand just not Bertie.

Harney's only reason to do a deal now is to pursue co-location, God help her but she genuinely believes in it. Finian and Tony couldn't live with it. So those sets of 2 TDs are mutually exclusive.

As for the rest, well...

Bev should be gone by the end of the summer...

Jackie would do a deal but whether Jackie would be worth it if he might not last the 5 years (that said we're from similar stock, my relations are west of Kenmare while his are 'eist' and I reckon he will see 90 plus.) FF won't bet or give away the farm on him.

Lowry also would not like co-location if it impacts Nenagh (Hanly wasn't too popular there as I recall), he can't live with Harney in government either.

If FG and Labour are really smart (or just as evil as I) they are laying plans for an election in Nov in which they might decide to step down candidates such as Regina Doherty (Regina welcome to the Seanad) in Meath East to ensure the Rainbow gains the 5/6 seats needed.

Harry McGee said...

The Breakfast Roll Man sounded very McWilliamesque. It's the Irish experience scrunched up into a sound-byte.
YouTube, blogging and photoshop has allowed post-modernism an outlet in Ireland for the first time. I intend to write about that soon - with an air of ironic detatchment of course.
Dan, I cannot see an election in November. It would need thousands of novenas, millions even. FF are looking for cast-iron guarantees from prospective partners that they will stay sweet for five years.
They are going to get it too.

Dan Sullivan said...

The Sunday Times quoted Eoghan Harris's "coping classes" only this weekend, another 20 years and they may have breakfast-roll man too!