Wednesday, March 21, 2007

INSIDE POLITICS - POLLS APART

The Wexford Echo is running a poll today, conducted by Red C.

The surprise are at both extremes. John Browne is his county's answer to Michael Ring. Despite being a junior minister, he is ubiquitous - at funerals, weddings and barmitzvahs! He told me a couple of years ago that his constituency office deals with 14,000 pieces of correspondence each year.

It is, therefore, not surprising that he is the likely poll topper this time round as he was in 2002. But what's flabbergasting is his showing in the poll. 30 per cent! That's double what he got five years ago. Now the last time I looked at Browne he hadn't unveiled hitherto concealed superhero powers or disclosed that he was putting his name forward as the next leader of FF.

So why the jump. If you look at the local constituency polls done so far, you see the leading contenders getting massive showings of support (Mayo, Galway West and Dublin Central are cases in point). It suggests that voters have not yet fully committed themselves and are plumping in opinion polls for the candidates they know best. I will perform a jig in Michael Flatley's most outre costume in the Bull Ring in Wexford town if Browne repeats that on polling day.

Can Colm O'Gorman be scoring as low as 2%? That happened too to John O'Mahony in Mayo. It's worrying for him but it's still early days. In his case, he has to get over the hump people will have about him (like O'Mahony) being a parachute candidate. But at the same time, the PDs better start worrying if he is their main hope of a gain.

1 comment:

Dara said...

Ivan Yates offered odds of 100 to 1 against Colm O'Gorman winning a seat. The canny Ivan was being conservative. Try 1 million to 1.