The polls are closing in six minutes. We've done a couple of sweeps in the last few days and our predictions have had more climbs and dips than a roller coaster.
My latest prediction is: FF 69 FG 46 Lab 22 SF 10 GP 9 PD 3 Other 7.
Any improvements on this inspired guesswork? Or, better still, is anyone brave enough to predict high profile candidates who are going to take the chop?
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6 comments:
Your prediction gives the Rainbow parties 77 seats. A question - is that enough to make it realistic for them to cobble together a government with the help of independents? And if not, what number do they need to get to? 80?
They need to get to 79 or 80. Whoever gets to 80 has it in the bag.
I was just listening to my Examiner colleage Aine Kerr making her impressive debut on Vincent Browne's show where all were asked to make predictions.
Interestingly pollster Sean Donnelly (very respected and who admittedly does polling for FF) is saying that FF will get 76, the PDs 3 or 4, and we will get a repeat of the 1997 Government.
I can't agree. Can't believe that FF have swung it so much in the past week.
I'm sure we'll all be proved wrong tomorrow!
FF 66
FG 54
Lab 22
Sinn 9
Green 8
PD 1
Ind 6
Fianna Fail + the Greens. They will almost have the numbers. Maybe they will need an independent or two. I cannot see the PDs being acceptable to the Greens. The Greens have said they want a change in Government. If Fianna Fail and the Peedees are still there, it's not a change!
I reckon it will be decisive for either grouping on account of the high turnout. It depends who all those extra voters are going for.
If I was having a punt i'd say the rainbow might just sneak it.
FF 76
PD 4
FG 46
Lab 17
Green 8
SF 9
Others 6
I agree with Donnelly, probably a repeat of 1997 or maybe FF-Green
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