My paper the Irish Examiner is running a poll Saturday. It's the first one of the election campaign and provides the first real weather vane on the state of the parties. Fine Gael and Labour will be happy. But funnily enough so will Fianna Fail. As one of my colleagues in the political lobby pointed out to me tonight, if FF got 37% in the election, it would be the worst result ever, since the foundation of the party.
But given its recent findings, and given the battering Bertie Ahern took this week, there was some solace there for it. Traditionally, FF score big in early election polls and then slide. It now knows the enormity of the challenge facing it. But the opinion polls didn't spell total meltdown and disaster. A little like British Labour's results in the local, Scottish Assembly and Welsh Assembly elections the predicted disaster didn't happen.
However, the clear trend still points to the alternative alliance, or the Alliance for Change as they are now styling themselves.
The PDs are in endangered species territory. And both SF and the Greens seem to have peaked - and are either flatlining now or perhaps even sliding a little.
Here are the results.
Irish Examiner/Lansdowne Market Research Poll
THE RESULTS - COMPARISONS WITH SEPTEMBER 2006
FF 37 (-2)
FG 26 (+2)
Lab 13 (+3)
SF 8 (-1)
GP 6 (no change)
PD 2 (-4)
Other/
Ind 9 (+3(
Satisfaction: Government 44% compared to 45% in September 2006.
Bertie Ahern satisfaction remains relatively high at 56% compared to 42% for Enda Kenny and 48% for Pat Rabbitte.
Sampling conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday.
1,006 adults nationwide.
+/- 3% margin of error.
21% undecided.
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